New Mexico

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	118.0
Current RPI:	118
Expected SOS:	93
Current SOS:	93
Current Record:	18-15
Expected Record:	18-15
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	251
Expected OOC SOS:	83

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-15	118.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	103-71	W	100%
11-17	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	75-56	L	0%
11-21	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	96-104	L	0%
11-24	TCU (26.0)	B12	N	69-67	L	0%
11-25	Maryland (74.0)	B10	N	80-65	L	0%
11-29	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	78-59	W	100%
12-2	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	88-76	L	0%
12-6	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	75-57	L	0%
12-9	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	62-65	L	0%
12-16	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	73-89	L	0%
12-19	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	78-69	W	100%
12-22	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	87-78	W	100%
12-27	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	87-58	W	100%
12-30	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	77-74	L	0%
1-3	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	90-62	L	0%
1-6	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	80-47	W	100%
1-10	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	75-66	W	100%
1-13	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	89-80	L	0%
1-17	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	81-85	W	100%
1-20	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	79-75	W	100%
1-27	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	80-65	W	100%
1-31	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	89-80	L	0%
2-3	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	68-71	W	100%
2-6	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	71-73	L	0%
2-10	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	100-92	L	0%
2-14	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	78-63	W	100%
2-20	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	114-119	W	100%
2-25	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	91-90	W	100%
2-28	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	87-108	W	100%
3-3	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	95-86	W	100%
3-8	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	N	85-75	W	100%
3-9	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	83-68	W	100%
3-10	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	N	75-82	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico	MWC	26.49	26.49	52.48	52.48	1.31	1.31
Utah St.	MWC	5.43	5.43	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	5.38	5.38	65.52	65.52	1.67	1.67
UNLV	MWC	3.99	3.99	64.52	64.52	1.16	1.16
Colorado St.	MWC	3.98	3.98	34.48	34.48	-1.24	-1.24
San Diego St.	MWC	3.96	3.96	68.97	68.97	1.50	1.50
Boise St.	MWC	3.94	3.94	71.43	71.43	1.69	1.69
Air Force	MWC	3.92	3.92	33.33	33.33	-1.31	-1.31
Fresno St.	MWC	3.92	3.92	64.29	64.29	1.12	1.12
San Jose St.	MWC	3.92	3.92	11.11	11.11	-3.05	-3.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.15	3.15	82.14	82.14	2.03	2.03
Nevada	MWC	2.56	2.56	78.79	78.79	1.47	1.47
UTEP	CUSA	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Colorado	P12	1.68	1.68	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	1.63	1.63	78.79	78.79	0.94	0.94
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.61	1.61	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Rice	CUSA	1.61	1.61	17.86	17.86	-1.04	-1.04
TCU	B12	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Evansville	MVC	1.57	1.57	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.56	1.56	25.00	25.00	-0.78	-0.78
Maryland	B10	1.52	1.52	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
Denver	Sum	0.25	0.25	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.24	0.24	64.71	64.71	0.07	0.07
Utah	P12	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Drake	MVC	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Chicago St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	3.33	3.33	-0.14	-0.14
Seattle	WAC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
California	P12	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01